Risk benefit analysis to evaluate risk of thromboembolic events after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination and COVID-19.

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

9-13-2024

Publication Title

NPJ Vaccines

Abstract

We compared the risks and benefits of COVID-19 vaccines using a causal pathway analysis to weigh up possible risk factors of thromboembolic events post-vaccination. The self-controlled case series (SCCS) method examined the association between thromboembolic events and vaccination while a case-control study assessed the association between thromboembolic events and COVID-19, addressing under-reported infection data issues. The net vaccine effect was estimated using results from SCCS and case-control studies. We used electronic health record data from Corewell Health (16,640 subjects in SCCS and 106,143 in case-control). We found increased risks of thromboembolic events post-vaccination (incidence rate ratio: 1.19, 95% CI: [1.08, 1.31] after the first dose; 1.22, 95% CI: [1.11, 1.34] after the second dose). Vaccination attenuated infection-associated thromboembolic risks (odds ratio: 4.65, 95% CI: [4.18, 5.17] in unvaccinated vs 2.77, 95% CI: [2.40, 3.24] in vaccinated). After accounting for vaccine efficacy and protection against infection-associated thromboembolic events, vaccination decreases thromboembolic event risk, especially during high infection rate periods.

Volume

9

Issue

1

First Page

166

DOI

10.1038/s41541-024-00960-7

ISSN

2059-0105

PubMed ID

39271677

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