Clinical Prediction Rule for SARS-CoV-2 Infection From 116 U.S. Emergency Departments 2-22-2021.
OBJECTIVES: Accurate and reliable criteria to rapidly estimate the probability of infection with the novel coronavirus-2 that causes the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) and associated disease (COVID-19) remain an urgent unmet need, especially in emergency care. The objective was to derive and validate a clinical prediction score for SARS-CoV-2 infection that uses simple criteria widely available at the point of care.
METHODS: Data came from the registry data from the national REgistry of suspected COVID-19 in EmeRgency care (RECOVER network) comprising 116 hospitals from 25 states in the US. Clinical variables and 30-day outcomes were abstracted from medical records of 19,850 emergency department (ED) patients tested for SARS-CoV-2. The criterion standard for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 required a positive molecular test from a swabbed sample or positive antibody testing within 30 days. The prediction score was derived from a 50% random sample (n = 9,925) using unadjusted analysis of 107 candidate variables as a screening step, followed by stepwise forward logistic regression on 72 variables.
RESULTS: Multivariable regression yielded a 13-variable score, which was simplified to a 13-point score: +1 point each for age>50 years, measured temperature>37.5°C, oxygen saturation75% probability with +5 or more points).
CONCLUSION: Criteria that are available at the point of care can accurately predict the probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These criteria could assist with decisions about isolation and testing at high throughput checkpoints.
Kline JA, Camargo CA Jr, Courtney DM, Kabrhel C, Nordenholz KE, Aufderheide T, Baugh JJ, Beiser DG, Bennett CL, Bledsoe J, Castillo E, Chisolm-Straker M, Goldberg EM, House H, House S, Jang T, Lim SC, Madsen TE, McCarthy DM, Meltzer A, Moore S, Newgard C, Pagenhardt J, Pettit KL, Pulia MS, Puskarich MA, Southerland LT, Sparks S, Turner-Lawrence D, Vrablik M, Wang A, Weekes AJ, Westafer L, Wilburn J. Clinical prediction rule for SARS-CoV-2 infection from 116 U.S. emergency departments 2-22-2021. PLoS One. 2021 Mar 10;16(3):e0248438. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248438. PMID: 33690722; PMCID: PMC7946184.